Gold and The U.S. Dollar

Spot Gold Prices Fall $46

By Gold World Staff
Tuesday, September 2nd, 2008

Spot gold prices shed over $45 on Tuesday falling below $800 an ounce for the first time in almost three weeks. Today's drop in gold prices follow a broader sell-off in commodities as a weaker-than-feared Tropical Depression Gustav undermined oil prices, which fell by as much as $10 a barrel, and the US dollar continued an upward trend.

Gold for October delivery plummeted $46.50, or 5.5%, to a intraday low of $791.60 an ounce on the Chicago Board of Trade. Meanwhile, the benchmark crude-oil contract tumbled as much as $10 to $105.46 a barrel, the lowest in five months.

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Gold lost $89.20 in August, the biggest monthly loss in dollar terms since at least 1984. Conversely, the US dollar has strongly rebounded over the past several weeks. The US Dollar Index, a measure of the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, has moved 9.5% higher since mid-July.

There's no doubt that investors are starting to get scared. But the fact is that the gold and metals market bull is still completely intact. Gold has already been through two of the three major stages of a bull market. The last—the mania stage—is yet to be realized. Once this mania stage kicks in, we believe that gold prices will easily top $2,000 an ounce. In the meantime we just have to be patient.

One the key indicators that we'll be watching over the next several weeks is, of course, the US dollar. Despite the recent rebound, the greenback still has all of the problems it had over the past several years, which has eroded its value nearly 50% since 2001. And there's little doubt in our minds that the US dollar is in a complete death spiral. Once people start to realize the true value of the US dollar, which is almost nil, gold will be the most logical haven.

For the short-term, however, we can expect lower gold prices. Downward momentum will likely push spot gold prices lower for the next six months, maybe even longer. So there's still plenty of time for investors to get their ducks in line. Nonetheless, we believe that owning physical gold will be the most important investment in the next few years. We continue to recommend to buy gold on strong weaknesses.

Spot gold prices closed today down $24.90, or 3.8%, to $806.30 per ounce.

Gold World Staff


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Comments:

Comment by kip reid on 2008-09-03
good article..with hedge funds closing short $ positions & long au positions we may see weaker au prices..until, as you say, they finally realize how much purchasing power they have lost..along with most other currencies around the world...mine production is also falling in most countries..thanks
Comment by George Dorsett on 2008-09-15
The far & away No. 1 reason for the SHARP SELLOFF in gold & silver prices is the illegal manipulation of the futures market by 3 banks!!

Illegal because even tho the number of naked short contracts is absolutely huge, the CFTC which is supposed to be the overseer & watchdog for the futures market is ignoring it. Between July 15th &
Aug. 13th 3 banks increased the number of naked gold shorts they held by 11 times.
During that same time period, two banks increased their naked silver shorts by 10 times.
The amount of contracts shorted equaled about 170 million ounces of silver, which is more than 1/2 years worldwide mine production.
It was a cleverly orchestrated move to take advantage of the tech funds selling long positions on the way down. While it cannot be proven, the banks likely had advance info from a gov't source that the USD would be propped up by Central bank manuevers.

Sound like a conspiracy fairy tale?
I strongly recommend you folks read the archived articles by the world's most outstanding expert on silver & it's relationship to the economy, Ted Butler.
His work can be found at SiverSeek.com One by one, every single prediction he has made about silver for the past 7 years has proven itself.

Treat yourself to an eye opening experience. Be well,

George D.
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